It has been a dead heat in the battle between the forces of bull and bear this month. The Accountagility Index for March shows a static picture at 5.29, up fractionally on the level of 5.28 last month. Markets have continued to rise to record highs. But are they ignoring the underlying weakening of key economic signals?
GDP growth has slackened in February, inflation has risen, and the pound continues to struggle on foreign exchanges. These factors have led to a reduced business confidence rating, still in positive territory above 5, but there is a clear easing happening.
March Brexometer Reading
The rejection of the Brexit bill by the Lords has not had an impact on the Index at this point, as it has had the effect of hardening the resolve of the Government to adhere to the timetable of invoking Article 50 this month. So the Brexometer continues in positive territory.
Any figure above 5.00 is positive.
The Accountagility Index Rating for March
Meanwhile a lower profile factor has turned this month; the UK debt ratio dropped slightly. Will this be a harbinger of a welcome longer-term trend?
March is set to be an action-packed month; keep following the Accountagility Index to see where the dial will point as we head into Q2.
What makes up the Accountagility Index (AAX)?
The data used to calculate the Accountagility Index are based on eleven key factors, all derived from a diverse range of independent and credible sources
- UK economic growth – A key building block of UK prosperity
- Markets – Reflects the health of larger British companies
- UK inflation – An important measure which needs to be carefully monitored
- Sterling strength – Affects imports, exports and confidence
- UK employment – Impacts so many aspects of UK economic activity
- UK Debt ratio – Tracks the UK’s progress against long term balancing of the books
- FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) – Illustrates the practical confidence levels from outside the UK
- Sentiment – Can be often the most important factor in how the economy is perceived
- Political stability/environment – A must include measure which can have instant impact on the big picture
- Progress on Brexit negotiations – Casts a very long shadow over all things
- Progress of International trade talks – A vital indicator of the UK’s international positioning