Helping CFOs plan through changeable conditions
The UK has made forward progress in the placid month of October, with the Accountagility (AAX) rising from 5.03 last month to a six month high of 5.16. The Index records UK political and economic health in a score out of ten, and any score above 5.00 is positive.
November Brexometer Reading
The key driver moving the Index has been an increased level of business confidence and activity. This improvement was the most marked in the important Services sector, but the Construction sector benefitted from an upsurge in residential building work. Meanwhile the Manufacturing sector is robust, and boasts the strongest level of all three indices, driven by a rising export order book.
Most other measures were neutral this month.
But what is to come? Experts are concerned that the froth of the confidence rating hides a multitude of longer-term negative signs, and that deeper issues lie just below the surface. The medium term prognosis is regarded as fragile.
The Accountagility Index Rating for November
As we head towards 2018, there are both chilly and warming winds building up on either side of the course ahead. Interest rates will now start to recede, at last, but based on simple historical facts, the markets look dangerously high. The most important developments undoubtedly surround the Brexit talks. You feel that there needs to be a breakthrough soon. Will that happen this month? Can the good ship HMS Britain continue to forge ahead or will it get blown into the shallows? Keep following the Brexometer to find out.
What makes up the Accountagility Index (AAX)?
The data used to calculate the Accountagility Index are based on eleven key factors, all derived from a diverse range of independent and credible sources
- UK economic growth – A key building block of UK prosperity
- Markets – Reflects the health of larger British companies
- UK inflation – An important measure which needs to be carefully monitored
- Sterling strength – Affects imports, exports and confidence
- UK employment – Impacts so many aspects of UK economic activity
- UK Debt ratio – Tracks the UK’s progress against long term balancing of the books
- FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) – Illustrates the practical confidence levels from outside the UK
- Sentiment – Can be often the most important factor in how the economy is perceived
- Political stability/environment – A must include measure which can have instant impact on the big picture
- Progress on Brexit negotiations – Casts a very long shadow over all things
- Progress of International trade talks – A vital indicator of the UK’s international positioning